TAKING A GAMBLE [Guest Post by Alex Knapp]

 

Taking a gamble….

This is it guys. This is the NBA season that ruins my life. I have finally decided to put my money where my mouth is, and bet on sports…

Is this a good idea? No! It’s a fucking horrible idea. Is that going to stop me? No! I fucking love horrible ideas.

Because sometimes in life a man decides he has to do something with the useless knowledge that he has accrued. Why do guys salivate at the idea of a having a wood-shop in their basement? Why did your step-dad buy that beat up 1970’s charger? They picked up a few tidbits about building large pictures frames, or how to properly oil a carburetor and god-dammit that’s knowledge they want to use!

Here’s my plan:

I work a ten minute walk away from The Barclays center. My plan is to go to a game every other week for the entire season. I’m shooting for 10-15 games.

This way I can have in-person 1st hand knowledge of over 1/3rd of the league, which will come in handy down the road.

Also, I have league pass. My plan here is to watch at least half of the Blazers games (around 40) over the course of the season, and keep notes on all the teams they play.

In conjunction with both of these,  obviously I’m going to watch a marquee game or two each week on TNT and ESPN.

Needless to say, this NBA season is going to packed!

The Goal:

My hope is that if I watch about 10-15 games in person, 40-60 games on TV, and continue to read and listen to copious amount of analysis on a daily basis, that I will be educated enough come playoff times to make some seriously smart and decisive bets.

How this could work:

Milwaukee plays the Bulls in the 1st round?

I’ve watched both teams in-person and on TV 3 times that season.

Bulls favored to win the series 4-2?–even though the eye test tells me the Bucks speed and versatility could out-match the Bulls lumbering offense and Tib-less Defense.

Did Derrick Rose look like he was gonna quit on Froi-berg 1/2 way through the season, and does he sulk on the bench anytime he gets subbed out and Jimmy Butler starts to go off without him on the floor?

I’ll take the Bucks in 7.

THIS COULD MAKE ME MONEY!!!!!

*Shakes head and extends hands as if to say “come on guys!”*

To get us started, and to have things to talk about as the season progresses – Here are a list of some over/unders and prop bets that I like before the season has begun. Not just based on who I think will win it – but also where the betting value is.

All of these are taken from bovada.com (https://sports.bovada.lv/basketball/nba-season-props)

PPG leader – Anthony Davis (+500)

Rebounds Per Game  – Demarcus Cousins (+1100)

MVP – Anthony Davis (+400), Blake Griffin (+2000)

Rookie of the year – Mudiay probably wins, BUT – Stanley Johnson (+1000), Mario Hezonja (+1400)

Atlanta Hawks (49.5)Over : DeMarre Carroll was not worth 10 games.

Brooklyn Nets (27.5)Under : God I hope they win more games than that, but this team is trash. It’s gonna be a long season at Barclays.

Charlotte Hornets (33.5)Under : No MKG, adding Batum is a wash. Other teams in the east are getting better = more hard games for the Hornets.

Dallas Mavericks (37.5) – Over: Won 50 games last year and swapped Tyson & Monte, for Wes, D-will, and Zaza. They have won more than 37 games in 15 out of the last 16 seasons and this isn’t their worst team. I’d bet my life on this.

Detroit Pistons (36.5)Over: Won 32 games last year, and added Marcus Morris, Stanley Johnson (*See Rookie of the Year*), Aron Baynes, and a full season of Reggie Jackson. Losing Greg Monroe might be a wash, and another year of Stan is worth at least 4 wins.

LA Lakers (28.5)Over : Pains me to say it, but young/talented guards with Roy Hibbert and Kobe is a recipe for 30 wins. They won 21 games last year with no Kobe and no Roy. Together they are worth 10-15 wins.

Miami Heat (45.5)Over: If the Heat can stay healthy I think this is the 2nd seed in the East, which history would show as 50-55 wins.

Milwaukee Bucks (44.4)Over: They won 41 games last year, I think Monroe + Jabari + another year of Kidd = more than 3 wins.

New Orleans Pelicans (48.5)Over: This is risky, but I think they are a top 6 seed in the West this season which usually means 48+ wins. I think the upgrade in Gentry is worth 4 wins alone, not to mention The Brow – *See PPG leader and MVP*

NY Knicks (29.5)Under : This team is trash. D-Fish doesn’t know what he is doing. Melo is getting older and fatter. The more Porzingis “The Zinger” plays the more games they will lose, even though they should play him the whole game (the only way he will get better).

Orlando Magic (33.5)Over: I like this team, they’re fun.

Phoenix Suns (36.5)Under : I think this thing blows up in Horny-sacks face. T-Chandler on that massive contract was idiotic. And I don’t think this team can score or stop anyone from scoring on the perimeter.

Portland Trailblazers(27.5)…….Under…… : I’m sorry….I can’t….They are going to be fun to watch, a lot of fast breaks and deep 3’s, but ultimately this team is going to suck in most statistical categories and won’t be able to stop anyone from scoring. Their best bet is to try and race to 120 points each game, even though we also don’t have proven scorers…Doh! BUT I HOPE THEY WIN!!!!!

That’s it for now.

Thanks to B-Mick for hosting my guest ramblings.

Keep checking back in to see exactly how stupid of a decision this all is.

Alex Knapp is a Portlander living in Brooklyn, New York for the past 7 years.

A filmmaker and actor currently working in HR to pay the bills, Alex is an avid NBA basketball fan who likely has an opinion on every team and every player, seriously – try him.

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