No Alarms and No Surprises Please

We’re only a month into the season, but I’m already feeling silly about some of my preseason predictions. I wanted to be edgy with some of my picks and may end up looking foolish for my Milwaukee Bucks analysis.

Aside Note: Staring into Jason Kidd’s eyes is like staring into the abyss. No disrespect to the legend, but if he were anything but a basketball genius, and NBA coach, I’d be nervous interacting with him. Imagine being a woman, and having J-Kidd as your gynecologist. Or imagine if J-Kidd was a manager at a cell phone store. He could either talk you into buying all kinds of unnecessary upgrades, or he would creep you the fuck out. If Jason Kidd were your EAP appointed shrink, would you go back and see him? I bet he practices hypnotism on the undercover.  You could tell me anything about Jason Kidd and I’d probably halfway believe it. The guy has had some notable public (and not so public) fiascoes  in his time.

As much as I want to perform self fellatio over my pre-season Mavs pick, I can’t help but feel stupid for buying into hype on the OKC Thunder. Dion Waiters is doing to basketball what Puff Daddy did to hip-hop in the late 90’s. It hurts me to my soul to watch that guy play basketball. Which makes it doubly tough to watch Thunder games. That guy couldn’t spell pass if you spotted put a P right next to Kim Kardashian’s booty. I’m not sold on the role players on their squad. I know its early, but as of today, 11/28/2015, they don’t look like NBA Finals material.

Spurs look good. The problem is that we haven’t seen them play too many good teams yet. You can also tell they are still trying to get the new guys acclimated to their system of play.

I seriously underestimated the Warriors though. As of last night, they are 100-20 for the last 2 seasons. I already said enough on them last week, but 17-0 is some video game shit. I could do that on NBA Live, but the sliders would be skewed and I would have certainly hit reset on a few of those games. Watching them play is a spiritual experience, and Steph Curry is the most exciting player in the game right now.

The biggest surprise has been how well the East has looked this year. Scoring has been up this year, and every team in the top 8 has a winning record as of today.  The Hornets are not as bad as I thought they would be.The Pistons are putting up a fight, Orlando is pesky with their talented backcourt, and even the Knicks are playing respectable ball (who is this Porzingis kid everyone is talking about???).

Although the Spurs and Warriors are looking good, and the Mavericks are surprising everyone but me and my podcast mate, Craig Stein, the West has become surprisingly buster laden. Think of the biggest busters in the NBA, and I can rattle off at least five off the top of my head. Don’t believe me?

[Takes a Deep breath]

AUSTINRIVERS,CHRISPAUL,JOSHSMITH,DEANDREJORDAN,

JAMESHARDEN,DIONWAITERS, DWIGHTHOWARD, and ROY HIBBERT.

[And exhale]

Four of those guys play on the same team, and another set of two play on the Rockets. Enough said right?

As it stands the 7-7 Utah Jazz would make the playoffs as an eighth seed. Of course I don’t expect this to last, but it does make for a very interesting start to the season. We were ready to just hand over the Eastern Conference title to the Heat Cavaliers. It may not be such a cakewalk.

On this week’s slate of games, its slim pickings for the first week of December. Maybe that is a good thing:

 

Monday

OKC-ATL 

Dallas-Sacramento

Spurs-Bulls (Good Ass Game of the Week)

 

Tuesday

This a good ass day to get some work done.

Wednesday

Golden State-Charlotte 

Go ahead and mark an “L” for the Hornets, as Steph Curry comes home. Do yourself a favor and listen to the away feed, as his dad, Dell will be calling it as a color commentator. Someone in the East will gain a game on Charlotte if they take care of their own business.

Toronto-Atlanta

Playoff preview?

Milwaukee-San Antonio

Worth checking out for sure. I’ll probably be at work late this night, catching up on work, so this is the perfect storm. I may as well bring a cot to my classroom.

Thursday

Oklahoma City-Miami

Interesting front court matchup here. I’d bet the over on blocks swatted this game.

Spurs-Grizzlebees 

Who knew that the missing piece for Memphis was a guard from Kansas?

 

Celtics-Kings

I know my boy Falcon Mike will be on this one. Rondo vs. his favorite team? MMMMPPPPHHHHH

“Black Album” Friday

It is a long season. Get out of the house for a change. Spend some time with that special someone. Big ups to one of the greatest to ever step in the booth.

Saturday

Golden State-Toronto

This game will almost certainly be a beige-out. Every light skinned dude from Hamilton, Ontario to Concord, California will be tuning in for this one.

People always ask me, “Bobby Mickey why don’t you like light skinned people?” Well for the record, I have nothing against light skinned people–my mother is light skinned, my granny was light skinned, if you know anything about my proclivities, there is a really good chance my kids will be light skinned.

But light skinned people are a breed of folk of their own. A lot of them think they are better than dark people because they are light, and they also think they are better than pale people because they have permanent tans (the notable exceptions to this are Chris Arnold and Stephen Curry). If you don’t believe me, just ask one of them. They will guiltily laugh because they know its true. I ain’t lying!!!

Cleveland-Miami 

This will be a hard fought affair, and then Wade, Bosh, and Lebron will all go out to a steak and shrimp dinner and talk about the old days. Then they will do “not one, not two, not three, four, five shots” of really expensive tequila, before tearfully hugging goodbye.

Kings-Rockets

If my man “Boogie Down Productions” is playing, there is good chance there may be a fight/and or ejection. I’m a mild mannered guy and the Rockets piss me off. Imagine a hot head like Cousins having to put up with Harden’s FuckBoyShit. 

Blazers vs. Teen Wolves

I can’t wait for my boy Bobo to get back from Europe so I can start texting him about the Blazers again. This game is definitely group text worthy.

Sunday

Kings-Thunder

I could see this one getting testy too. I don’t know if this is Good Ass Game of the Week material, but I guarantee you its gonna be some ice grilling going on. By the way, I love me some Russ, homie is perpetually sour.

Dallas-Washington

Talk about tapping that vein. Wizards are boring and basic as fuck. I’m sure there are 1,000’s of reasons to watch this game, but I can’t think of any.

A lot of shade being thrown in today’s post. I hope I didn’t offend anyone. These are just jokes folks. Life is too short to be getting butt hurt over every little thing. There are issues to worry about in the world.

Peace,

 

BM

bobbymickey@gmail.com

fullsass.com

@clickpicka79

#thisagoodassgame #fullsass

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Talking Turkey

It was a good ass week for hoops last week. The Warriors somehow managed to wow me again, Kentucky hit the nation with the nastiest 1-2 combo I’ve seen since Lennox Lewis was boxing, and the NBA Rookie of the Year award has become a two person race.

I peeped the Champions Classic on Tuesday night and was rather impressed with what I saw. It was a basically a pair of Wackarnold’s All American games. After watching the Kentucky-Duke game, the KU-Sparty game was a serious letdown.

Bill Self still loves to keep his best shooters on the bench and clog the lanes with big men. I don’t understand why Brannen Greene (as of now suspended for 6 games) or Svi Mykhailiuk are not on the floor at all times to keep defenses honest.

If I’m playing Kansas I’ll take my chances with Frank Mason, Devonte Graham, and Wayne Selden shooting from behind the arc. Perry Ellis is a good shooter, but you are doing teams a favor by having him 18-25 feet away from the basket. Maybe he does become a Lamarcus Aldridge clone on the next level, but he is not there yet.

Big ups to Denzel Valentine (triple double), who was the only redeeming aspect of that game. Shit was weaker than a Drake diss record.

Kentucky continues to be a professional basketball camp. If I was an 17 year old stud about to choose a college, the only thing that would keep me from signing with the UK would be their historic legacy of racism. But a night on the town with Ashley Judd’s old ass may be enough to sway a brutha. Speaking inf Kentucky players, peep this article by former national (and NBA )champion Nazr Mohammed.

The Kentucky backcourt of Tyler Ulis ,and Jamal Murray is the best in the country (no disrespect to Ron Baker and Fred Van Fleet).

Speaking of that Duke-Kentucky game, I’ve figured out the formula for the Dukies winning a title. Last year’s title game was easily the blackest roster I’ve seen since I’ve been a hoops fan. Anytime they have had more than four white guys getting major minutes, you can pretty much pencil them in as first weekend flame out.

Grayson Allen had a good weekend up in New York, but you saw what happened on Tuesday when he played against future professionals (2-11 with 6 pts). I saw Bobby Hurley play at Duke, and Allen is no Bobby Hurley. I’d say he’s a “Wojo” with hops and a better shot (no disrespect to “Wojo” or to short white guys—some of my best friends are short and white).

And before you say something about the 2010-2011 team, when they beat Butler; that was a down year for college hoops.

Watching college hoops reminded me of why I prefer NBA ball though. College hoops is so sloppy, coach dominated, and frankly, just an inferior product. The gap between college hoop and pro ball is huge. I basically watch for scouting purposes alone. If you wanted to put money on how many college games I’ll watch this year, I’d bet -25. Call your bookie now.

Now, onto the pros:

 

Monday

Some good ass games to start the week with

New York-Miami

The hype on Kristaps Porzingis is getting loud. Playing in a buzz heavy city like New York lends favor for a guy like Porzingis. I hope Justice Winslow is using this as fuel to show out against the Knickerbockers. The media is dying to give Porzingis a nickname and they are reaching. Frankly his last name alone is better than “KP” (there is already a KD why add confusion?), “The Zinger”, or “Rook.” Its much easier for me to yell “Porzingis” when homie is going Fed in a big game. Reminds me of basketball bromance with Sabonis. The syllables just roll off the tongue.

San Antonio- Phoenix

Any other year, the Spurs would be number one option, but with League Pass, the urgency isn’t as strong. I can’t say enough about how much I want to see how they match up with the Dubs. More on them later though.

Sacramento vs. Charlotte will be worth checking out. Rondo is putting up triple doubles faster than you can say Russell Westbrook. I still fux with Rondo, and I’m not ashamed to admit it.

This Detroit-Milwaukee game is the perfect example of why I love the condensed game feature on NBA league pass. It’ll be interesting, but not exactly beautiful. Kind of like “ugly” women in New York–still exotic enough to make it worth checking out.

 

Tuesday

Chicago-Portland will be the best game of the night, but the Golden State-Lakers game will be the best blow out game you’ve ever seen.

Speaking of the Warriors, Last Week’s Good Ass Game of the Week, lived up to the hype. Even though Golden State was down, they never panicked. Draymond Green’s three at the end of the 3rd period may as well have been the game winner. His reaction after he hit it, just showed how much swag they have right now.

I love how confident they are. Last year they thought they were good, but this year they know they are good. It is making all the difference in the way they prepare for games.

In Phil Jackson’s “Eleven Rings” (a great read), he talks about the 5 stages of tribal culture.

Level 1 is “All Life Sucks.” The best example of this are franchises like the Kings, and the 76ers.

Level 2 is “My life Sucks” This would be the Clippers right up to the point of them drafting “Beige” Griffin.

Level 3 is “I’m great and your’re not.” Kobe era Lakers without Phil.

Level 4 “We’re Great” Spurs.

Level 5 “Life is Great.” Innocent Wonderment. Talk is about infinite potential and making history. The tribe is in competition with what is possible, not another tribe. Think the 72 win Bulls.

 

Level 5 is where the Warriors are right now. They know they are special, and young enough to enjoy the newness of it all. They are having fun, which makes it fun to watch them. I haven’t seen this kind of buzz surrounding a team’s offense since the showtime Lakers. It is fitting that they can tie the record for best start to a season by beating them on Tuesday.

Wednesday

Cleveland-Toronto

I hope this is a second round matchup in the playoffs.

Atlanta-Minnesota 

Trust me. By the way. I love me some Karl Anthony Towns. He plays D, he has a good post game, and he can pass. I’m just sayin’

Sacramento-Milwaukee

The highlights alone will be worth watching.

Miami-Detroit

Hassan Whiteside will be the starting big man for the Eastern Conference All Stars.

Dallas-San Antonio (GOOD ASS GAME OF THE WEEK)

Can you say live tweet session? #FULLSASS

Thursday

This some good ass Turkey.

Friday

Sacramento vs. Minnesota

Some young talent in this one.

Golden State vs. Phoenix

Suns will hang with them for about 2 -3 quarters before Dubs run away from them. Records will be broken.

Detroit vs. Oklahoma City

The return of Reggie.

 

Saturday

Atlanta vs. San Antonio  will be something like this.

Sunday

Minnesota-Los Angeles 

If you really need to tap that vein.

 

Have a happy Thanksgiving.

Peace.

Continue reading

Easin’ into the Grind

I haven’t had as much time as I’d like to watch NBA this season. The number of games I want to catch up on are piling up. The bandwidth at my local Starbucks is weak, and I’m afraid that if I get internet at my house that I’ll become a hermit. By December, I’ll be a bit more adjusted, and will have caught my breath by winter break. I plan to devote at least 5-6 hours a day during this period to watching basketball. Only 4 more weeks until this is a reality. The marquee “Good Ass Game of the Week” matchups have been as good as advertised, but the biggest surprise to me is how much better ball is in the Eastern Conference. The quality of play is improved, and instead of 89-76 games, teams are actually scoring into the 100’s.

All that being said, I still fux with the Western Conference teams more heavily than the East–no doubt. Right now my favorite squads to watch are the Warriors (unreal the kind of ball they are playing. I don’t think an offense has generated this kind of round-the-league since the Showtime era Lakers), the Bulls (can actually stretch the floor with shooters), the Teen Wolves (could conceivably have two of the best 2 way players in the league someday with Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins–I’ve watched more games by them this year than I have in the entire KG “Big Ticket” era), Kings (those throwback powder blue jerseys are sick), and of course the Spurs.

This week Kawhi supplanted Kevin Durant as my favorite player in the NBA. Curry stays on at #2, while KD slips to three. Steph and KD are both electrifying to watch, but Leonard is slowly building up his case for being the best 2 way player in the game (after Lebron of course). But Lebron won’t be around forever, and we’re only 3-4 seasons away from Lebron’s body betraying him, making him merely great rather than otherworldly. Who’ll supplant Lebron? Well it could be any of these guys in no particular order:

Andrew Wiggins

Victor Oladipo

Jimmy Butler

Kawhi Leonard

Anthony Davis

Paul George

Anthony Towns

The NBA product is in good hands for the next 8-10 years. Let’s get to these games:

Monday

Portland-San Antonio 

This will be close for about 3 and a half quarters if we are lucky. Seriously though, if you like to watch good defenders, and you haven’t been watching Kawhi, do yourself a favor and peep. First hit is free, after that…….

OKC-Memphis

Always a good battle with these two teams. No Durant adds more pressure on the supporting cast to step it up, because you know Hustle Westbrook is going to fill the stat sheet.

“Tap That Vein” Tuesday

Minnesota-Miami 

Young guns. This will be a fun watch. I’m especially looking forward to the Towns-Whiteside face-off.

Toronto-Golden State

Warriors  gonna rock the “Throwbacks” that night. MMMMMPPPPPPPHHHHHHHH!!!!

[If College hoops gives you that buzz, then get on those Duke-Kentucky, Kansas-Michigan State games]

Wednesday

Sacramento-Atlanta

Even when the Kings get blown out, it lends for entertainment.

Dallas-Boston

This strikes me as the type of game one would live-tweet while watching.

Chicago-Phoenix

Suns just aren’t a hoops sexy team this year. It’ll still be a fun game though. Its good toe See Doug McDermott out on the court this year. Homie can ball.

Thursday

Sacramento-Miami

Cousins vs. Whiteside??? Insert “banging in the post” joke here. GO!!!

Milwaukee-Cleveland pt. Duex

The Bucks match up well with the Cavs. Imagine the length of Golden State without the outside shooting threats. That’s the Bucks.

Golden State vs. Lol Clippers “Good Ass Game of the Week”

Good night to make some chili on the crock pot, and stare at the computer (or tv) screen. Warriors have Bogut back for this one. I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d put money on Blake Griffin getting a tech this game.

Friday

Detroit-Minnesota 

Some young talent in this one. Andre Drummond vs. Karl Anthony Towns. Remember when they said big men in the post were a dying breed?

Spurs-New Orleans

To quote the great Jordan Paladino, “New Orleans is trash.” The only way I’ll be watching the Pelicans again this year is if they play a marquee  game. I know its early in the season, but not only do they not look like they’ve gotten better, but it seems like they regressed. Its pretty disappointing.

Clippers-Portland

Lillard against Chris Paul sounds slightly amusing. Its hard to watch the Trailblazers even with their sick back court. When Lillard and McCollum are off the floor, it feels like I’m watching a pickup game at the Lewis and Clark Recreation Center–especially with Plumlee, Leonard, and Connaughton on the team.

Chicago-Golden State “Good Ass Game of the Week PART 2”

Last February’s affair was one of the “Good Ass Games of the Year” in my book. I have three words for you: HIGH LEVEL BASKETBALL. Plus two of my favorite college players from back in the day are now coaching against each other. That is correct, I am old enough to have seen the “The Mayor” play in college. #DON”THATECUZYOULATE

Saturday

Sacramento-Orlando

This week definitely has some bite to it. Good ass games every single night. Orlando is pesky. Scott Skiles knows how to get the young bucks fired up to play. Its the veterans who get tired of his overbearing style though. This is the perfect situation for him. In 4 years, maybe not. He is like the Buck Showalter of NBA coaches.

Memphis-San Antonio

Memphis looks a step behind this year. I’d be shocked if this were a double overtime affair like last season. Then again, so was this shot.

Sunday

Definitely the kind of setting that would precipitate a live-tweet session.

Big Ups of the Week to the person who designed this year’s Mavs’ jerseys. Those are the best looking ones I’ve seen in al the years they been rocking them shits.

I wish I could say the same for the Thunder jerseys. HELL NAW!!!

They would get the Buster of the Week Award in a regular week, but last week’s events (the bombings in Lebanon, and the shootings in Paris), have me thinking more sobering thoughts. In order for a tragedy of last week’s magnitude to occur, it takes multiple parties have to be complicit.

I’m not naive enough to think that international conflict can be avoided. Its unavoidable. But the fact that people can’t go to a movie, or see their favorite band without fear of being shot in a public place is discomforting. We have to figure out a way to be better people towards each other. There’s no way around it.

One minute you are ordering a dish in French for the first time, and in the next breath, there can be bullets whizzing by your head.Life really is that fragile.

#shoothoopsnotpeople

Peace.

BM

#thisagoodassgame # fullsass

@clickpicka79

Fullsass.com

bobbymickey@gmail.com

Out The Gate

The scheduling gods looked favorably upon me with a pretty weak slate of games for week 2 of the season. This was easily the busiest week I’ve had at school, and I was able to catch up on sleep when I was not at work. I think I only got to watch about 4 or 5 games live this week. The two best games were Thunder-Bulls, and Warriors-Clippers. Both games were awesome, with the Warriors-Clippers game being everything I thought it would be. The game was krunk from tip-off to the final buzzer. #HIGHLEVELBASKETBALL

I was buzzing for hours after the game, and had to stop myself from watching the replay during breakfast. The Warriors look good, and they don’t even have their head coach or starting center right now. The way they hunkered down and took over during winning time (the 6:24 mark during the fourth quarter) was incredible. They played focused team defense and then Harrison Barnes (can’t wait to see him match up against Kawhi Leonard) got hyphy for about 6 possessions in a row–with back to back 3 pointers, a block, and then another basket. Steph Curry started doing Steph Curry things, and then the Clippers had a terrible final possession to end the game. This game was easily the “Good Ass Game of the Week.”

I was tired the next day, but it was a good kind of tired. You’d have thought I had a one night stand they way I was glowing. I was in the teacher’s lounge like “Mannnnnn, I was at the bar, minding my own business, when what’dayaknow? A basketball game comes on the television. You should have seen the point guards in this game man. They were going up and down the court, up and down the court. Running and Gunning. Gunning and Running. I mean, I was tryna play it cool, being in a public place, but eventually I was like GAME ON!!!! So you know, finally I’m like let’s do this. One thing led to another, and yadda yadda yadda, I wake up in the morning still thinking about it. MMMMMMPPPPPPPHHHHHHH!!!!”

This week’s Slate (starting from Tues. 10th)

Tuesday

Dallas-New Orleans 

The fight for the 8th seed continues.

Oklahoma City-Washington

KD comes home to tease Wizards fans of what they can’t have.I just watched the Spurs blow a very winnable game against Washington last week. I hit my boys up with “good ass game” alert texts even before Tony Parker hit a three with 7 seconds left to tie it up. Of course there was a mix up on a defensive switch, and Bradley Beal was left wide open to hit a game winner. Sean Elliot was not a happy color commentator.

The only thing that made me feel better about this loss was that OKC blew two winnable games of their own. Their defense hasn’t impressed me yet, and Dion Waiters may be the most selfish third tier player I’ve ever seen. Dude is a broke man’s Nick Young. I’m not a fan.

Wednesday

San Antonio vs. Portland

I’m looking forward to texting all my PDX homies during this one. This will be a measuring stick game for the Trailblazers. This is the first really good team they’ll face this season.

Detroit-Sacramento

This will be the “pick 2 click”  for the night. Trust me. I’m a doctor.

Thursday

Golden State vs. Minnesota

Most clinics you have to pay for. The Teen Wolves should think of this game as a paid clinic. Still it’ll be a fun watch. Don’t miss this one.

Los Angeles (Clippers)-Phoenix

This will be a “tap that vein’ kind of affair for me. I’ll probably be getting into bed by halftime.And  by the way, the Clippers will remain suspect as long as Austin Rivers is the backup point guard for the Clippers. They may as well have Steve Blake out there.

Friday the 13th

Teen Wolves versus Hickory High

Somewhere in Los Angeles, Bill Simmons is typing up a tweet about his two favorite movies coming to life.

Saturday

Dallas vs. Houston

Loser of this game has to Sit in an hour of traffic afterwards. Oh wait, that’s everybody in the arena.

Cleveland-Milwaukee (Good Ass Game of the Weak????)

Everything I wrote for the Blazers-Spurs game applies here. Even though I picked them to be in the Eastern Conference Finals this year, I’m still not sold on the J-Kidd’s quite yet.

Sunday

Boston-Oklahoma City

If I happened to be a certain Boston Celtics fan from Maine, who happened to be nicknamed after a Falcon, I’d take my significant other to a nice little brunch, put in some serious quality time before sports totally took over my Sunday afternoon and evening. Or I’d avoid this game completely to avoid seeing the hurting that KD and Russ are going to put on the C’s. By the way, Billy Donovan blew this game, and forced the country to endure a Butler-UConn final.

Toronto-Sacramento

I really hope to see “Boogie Down Productions” play in this one. Toronto is trying to make people sorry they slept on them. They aight. I won’t say more than that until we get further in the season. Anyway, this will be a good game, and even if it isn’t I’ll still probably watch. I’m done with football until the playoffs start. Just wake me up when someone is ready to beat the Patriots. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Have a good week. Peace.

BM

@clickpicka79

bobbymickey@gmail.com

#thisagoodassgame #fullsass

fullsass.com

The 35/55 Rule : A Guest Post by Alex Knapp

Let’s get one thing straight. I’m a Portland Trail Blazer fan. I WANT them to win.
I’m not going to hide my bias or pretend I don’t care about the outcome of a game, or even the ten thousand variables that went into said outcome of that game (if a Pat Connaughton flaps his wings).
In fact, I’m going to use this bias and knowledge of the team to better inform my predictions of their success this season. After all, this is the team I read about and watch the most – shouldn’t I be relatively knowledgeable about them? And aren’t I capable as a rational human to formulate thoughts that aren’t only purely based out of emotional feelings towards the success of the team?
“THE BLAZERS ARE THE BEST CUZ I LIKE THEM A LOT.” – dumb fan with zero basketball knowledge or insight
Therefore, I wrote in my previous guest post – and will continue to believe that they win less than 27.5 games this season (the Vegas over/under).

Now we are 5 games into the season and the Blazers are 3-2. Fans are scoffing at the 27.5 win line, with most eyeing a 35-40 win season, and the select few who wear Rose city colored glasses lamenting an 8th seeded playoff berth – “Listen, CJ is a top 5 SG in the league and Ed Davis is a skinny Z-bo. WE ARE GETTING THE 8th SEED!”

Yet, I’m holding strong.

I don’t think the Blazers have the horses to consistently put up enough points in the stacked west. I think our team is made up of unproven, slightly above average – mismatched  pieces, with horrible perimeter defense from our starting guards, and a general lack of rim protection behind that. I think we lose a lot of close 4th quarter games, and are always at risk of blowing a big lead that we get early in the game. Make no mistake, this team is lottery bound. AND THAT’S OKAY!!!!! 

Now that we’ve got that out of the way…to why we are actually here….

The 35/55 rule.
I’ve developed a simple theory/mathematical equation to predict the probability of the Blazers success this season. By keying in on a few simple box scores numbers, I believe I could successfully tell you the outcome of a game, without having the final score revealed to me.

This theory revolves around the scoring of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Separately and in conjunction.
Why? because their scoring is the single most consistent thing about this team, or at least fans of them winning hope it is.
It’s also the greatest predictor of our offense putting up enough numbers to be even competitive in any game.
The difference between Aminu putting in 6 and 18 points essentially has no baring on whether we win or lose.
Ed Davis playing solid defense and snagging 12 rebounds isn’t a strong enough correlation to us winning games.

Simply put no one else on this team impacts the game enough to make a difference – other than Dame and CJ’s scoring output.

So let’s look at some numbers:

Game 1:  37 + 21  = 58  = W
Game 2:  16 + 24  = 40  = L
Game 3:  15 + 23  = 38  = L
Game 4:  18 + 34  = 52  = W
Game 5:  27 + 35  = 62  = W

Are we noticing a trend…..?

It’s really simple guys, the first column is CJ’s points that game, the second column is Dame’s points that game, and the third column is their combined points.

Each time one of them scores close to 35 points, and combined they score close to 55, they win.
Each they don’t do both of those things, they lose.

Let’s take a second look with everything labeled:

               CJ     Dame     Both   Outcome
Game 1:  37  +   21      = 58     = W
Game 2:  16  +   24      = 40     = L
Game 3:  15  +   23      = 38     = L
Game 4:  18  +   34      = 52     = W

Game 5:  27  +   35      = 62     = W

My prediction : They will continue to win whenever the 35/55 rule is reached, and will continue to lose every game it’s not.
Now this isn’t an exact science, if Henderson comes back and puts up big numbers or Aminu gets hot and puts in 25+ one game (allowing CJ to take a night off), then those nights the rule won’t be reached and the Blazers might get the Win. I hope they do.
However, I truly think around 85% of games this year (70 games) will fall under the 35/55 rule, and it will become the easiest predictor of success for the Blazers this season.

This is also why I believe Lillard has a punchers chance of the Points Per Game title.
He will need to average close to 28 ppg if this team is going to win any where close to 30 games.
Take a gander at the box scores every night and do the math in your head…you’ll start to see I’m right. I’ll post another update to this rule every 20 games or so just to show the progress.

Alex Knapp is a Portlander living in Brooklyn, New York for the past 7 years.
A filmmaker and actor currently working in HR to pay the bills, Alex is an avid NBA basketball fan who likely has an opinion on every team and every player, seriously – try him. 

OVERREACTIONS : Guest Post by Jordan Paladino

Apple Pie. Bruce Springsteen. Overreacting to a small sample size. These are some of the most American things I can think of. In honor of America, here’s my NBA Week One Overreactions.

NUMBER ONE: Steph Curry will be the NBA Scoring Champion. Steph is currently averaging 37.0 pts/gm (as of November 4) and is shooting .595/.488/.964 and he’s going to keep those numbers up. NBA blowhards have been raving about Curry’s shooting since he joined the league, and this is going to be Steph’s historic year.

His 50.25 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is the best in the NBA, and way above the highest all time of 31.82 by Wilt Chamberlain in 62-63. So this season, Steph will be the scoring champion, have the best 50/40/90 percentages ever, have the NBA’s all time best PER, and the Warriors are on-line to repeat as Champions, which brings me to my number two overreaction…

NUMBER TWO: The San Antonio Spurs will not reach the Western Conference Semifinals this season. Take away Kawhi Leonard and what do the Spurs really have? Their best player is a 39-year-old Tim Duncan (who’s a top 10 all time player), Tony Parker on a definite career decline since the 2012 NBA Finals loss to my beloved (at the time) Miami Heat, an uninspiring lifetime loser (LaMarcus Aldridge), and a fat French guy (Uncle Boris Diaw).

Gregg Poppovich is a great coach, and the Spurs draft and scout as well as anyone, but the Blazers used Aldridge as their offensive focal point for a decade and got out of the first round once. The Spurs are coming off a first round loss to the Clippers (who no one likes and everyone always thinks are overrated AND underachievers). Speaking of the Blazers…

NUMBER THREE: The Portland Trail Blazers will win 35 games. Damian Lillard is the scorer that Rip City has needed since Clyde “The Glide” Drexler. A longstanding trend I’ve noticed as a Blazer fan is that Portland hasn’t had a top 5 scoring leader for as long as I can remember or care to look up. Lillard is going to bring that to Portland in 2015-2016. Ed Davis is going to be considered the sneaky good signing of the offseason.

Ed Davis was a beast at North Carolina (and a National Champion), put up great numbers in limited minutes in Toronto, Memphis, and Los Angeles, and is covering up how poorly Meyers Leonard has been this season. Al-Farouq Aminu is putting up 15 and 9 a game (I’ve been an Aminu fan since his time with the Clippers) and is turning into the perimeter defender that will hide the fact that Big Game (No Defense) Dame and CJ “Give Him A BJ And Put This Game In The Win” McCollum can’t play a lick of defense. On to the east…

NUMBER FOUR: The Miami Heat will make the Eastern Conference Finals. Dwyane Wade will use the power of Gabrielle Union to stay healthy, Chris Bosh being healthy can take the Heatles offense to a new height with the emergence of Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic is a facilitating point guard who can distribute the ball to Wade, Bosh, Whiteside (at the basket, which is something Miami hasn’t paired with balanced scoring and ball movement since 2006 when they won the Championship with an assist from the referees), and Luol Deng.

Miami’s bench also has Justise Winslow, who should have been taken in the top 3 after seeing how awful D’Angelo Jenner-Russell has been. Amare in limited minutes can give the Heat some energy off the bench when Bosh or Whiteside are resting, McRoberts is healthy this season, Gerald Green is a poor man’s Corey Brewer, and Mario Chalmer is more suited to fill his role as an eighth guy instead of starter. PS- Erik Spoelstra is the second best coach in the Eastern Conference, only behind Brad Stevens. Now to who the Heat will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals…

NUMBER FIVE: The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals. LeBron James is my favorite basketball player of all time. Much like the best West Coast rapper in the game (Vince Staples) there’s context to this next statement. LeBron James is the best basketball player of all time, based off what I’ve seen with my own two eyes. Michael Jordan this, Magic Johnson that.

LeBron James has been the best player in the league for last 8 years, and this year is no different. LeBron the GM re-signed Tristan Thompson, picked up Mo Williams, and got Richard “35 years young” Jefferson to come off the bench. LeBron the coach made the genius call of making Kevin Love the catalyst of the offense, which will let Kyrie Irving ease back into the offense and take a load off the rest of the team until the playoffs when the Cavs will be healthy. A full season of Mozgov, Shumpert’s development as a shooter and continued flourishing as a defender, and Matthew Dellavedova will break at least one Chicago Bull or Miami Heat players arm.

STRAY OVERREACTIONS:

Rookie Of The Year: Kristaps Porzingis. Kristy and Langston Galloway (best name in the NBA, hands down) are going to bring New York basketball back to the playoffs (next year), and once Derek Fisher leaves my beloved Knickerbockers are going to be challenging the Cavs for the 2017-2018 Eastern Conference Finals.

Coach Of The Year: Brad Stevens. Stevens would have won last year if the Celtics had a winning record, and the writers who vote for the award are dying to give this guy the award to prove how ahead of the curve they are (even though we all know Stevens is a genius coach). By the way, Marcus Smart will win Most Improved Player.

Premature Coronation Of The Year: Anthony Davis. The Pelicans suck. I’ve watched three of their games and not liked anything I’ve seen. Davis’ shot isn’t falling, Tyreke isn’t anything, and Ryan Anderson is done. The Pelicans won’t make the playoffs, and Russell Westbrook will be considered the next “Best Player” in the NBA after LeBron.

Since these are overreactions, I reserve the right to go back on any declarative statement I’ve made, but if any of these are right everyone must bow down to my immense basketball acumen.

Listen to Young Thug.

Jordan Paladino is a Portland comedian, rapper, and writer for the show “Who’s the Ross?” He is a staunch defender of all things Lebron James, Drake and Kanye West. He is also a KD hater. I try not to hold these things against him.

First Impressions: This Week’s Good Ass Game Viewing Guide

If there were ever a year to get introduced to NBA League Pass, this is the year to do it. There are so many good players to watch on so many teams right now, and so little time. I don’t have internet at my apartment yet (we only get paid once a month in my school district), and the only time I can catch games is either at the bar, at work when I’m working late, or at the local Starbucks on their Wi-Fi. 17 more days of ducking and dodging, creeping and crawling, before I can start curling up in bed and falling asleep to west coast games.

The great thing about having that pass is that I can watch games retroactively. I’ve watched so many games retroactively that I no feel like less of a fan, and more like a university student doing homework. I can’t believe people get paid to just sit in dark rooms and watch film all day. There is an NBA Hardwoods Classic feature that lets you go back and watch classic games on there, but the best feature of all is the Condensed game; where you can watch what amounts to an extended highlights clip. This is the only way I can get through a Clippers or Rockets game, because their games take an extra hour because of all the whistles and flops.

A couple of weeks before the season started, a friend cautiously suggested that the Kings could make a run for that 8th seed in the West. I thought it was ludicrous because of the crazy front office situation, but I’ve watched at least a little of every Kings game so far, and they look good. Part of that has to do with Rajon Rondo. Anyone who has dated someone right out of a serious long term relationship, can understand that the Mavericks just ran into a buzzsaw. Here’s a guy whose formative NBA years were spent with one team–a team that won an NBA championship.

It wasn’t the best of endings, and before he even had a chance to process his feelings, he in another relationship with another team. This team thinks its found its point guard of the future, but Rondo I’m sure is looking at the roster thinking “I just left an old ass squad that is too slow to run with me, and I’m now I’m about to commit the remaining years of my prime to the same kind of team.”

Now Rondo is with an athletic team with the right mix of veterans and up and coming stars. That roster is loaded with talent, and is better than those Nuggets teams that George Karl was coaching with Carmelo. I slept on the Kings, but I’m sure taking them seriously now after watching their first 3 games of the season. They will be a hard team to blowout.

A few things crossed my mind during this week:

  • If there were an “NBA Face Time” team for guys whose play makes you want to punch them in the face, the Clippers would be well represented. It’d be like that one year where the entire starting five for the Pistons almost made the All-Star Team.
  • I should have studied the Milwaukee Bucks point guard situation more closely before I predicted they would be in Eastern Conference Finals. I’ve never been a fan of Jerryd Bayless (and not just because he’s light skinned). I guess if anyone is going to get the best out of that backcourt, it will be Jason Kidd. I do really like their uniforms though–they look pretty crispy.
  • New Orleans can’t afford to have too slow of a start out West. Their defense has not looked good in the first few games. After giving up 39 in the first quarter in their first game against Golden State, they gave up 40 to the Trailblazers (My boy C.J. had 22 of them in a 37 point effort). I feel like I have been saying this every year since 2008, but the West has only gotten better.
  • The Teen Wolves have been a fascinating story this year. Their season has an extra melancholic milieu to it with the passing of Flip Saunders. If Ricky Rubio can finally stay healthy, I think he can be the Spanish version of Tony Parker. I think Andrew Wiggins will be an All NBA defender within the next 3 years, and Karl Anthony Towns is my front runner for Rookie of the Year. What I really like about this roster is that they have KG, Tayshaun Prince, and Andre Miller in the locker room as player-coaches. This teams reminds me of the ’09 OKC squad that was right on the cusp of being in the playoffs. We’ll see what happens, but they may be a few off-season moves away from really giving teams some headaches next year.

Let’s get to these games:

“Tap that Vein” Tuesday

Atlanta-Miami (meh) Remember that condensed version mode? That’s how I’ll be watching this game.

Memphis-Sacramento Unfortunately our boy Boogie is on day-to-day status with an Achilles strain. The scrappy factor just went down a few notches because of that injury. Don’t rush back Boogie. WE NEED YOU THIS SEASON!!!!

Wednesday

Golden State-Los Angeles Clippers (GOOD ASS GAME OF THE WEEK)

Cancel. All. Your. Plans. This. Evening.

Thursday

OKC-Chicago Two rookie coaches from the college ranks facing each other for the first time. I like the depth of the Bulls this year. I watched them play Orlando the other night, and I couldn’t help but wonder how relaxed the atmosphere must have been at training camp this year. I don’t agree with the method, but a coaching change had to happen up in the Windy City. Thibs is a grinder, and that roster didn’t need that. Let’s talk about that backcourt for a minute. Jimmy Butler may be the best two way guard west of Lebron James, and Derrick Rose may be the perfect sidekick to Mr. Buckets (Yeah I said it).

Speaking of coaching changes, I realized last night that Billy D. may be the best coach that either Westbrook or Durant have ever had. That kinda makes me sad.

Friday

Houston-Sacramento Did you ever think that the Kings would be making the Good Ass Games list twice in a week?

Saturday

Minnesota-Chicago This will be a good gauge for the Teen Wolves. I’ll prolly be watching this one from a booth at Starbucks….grading papers or some shit to make me feel productive.

New Orleans-Dallas One of these two teams might miss the playoffs. For some reason this reminds me of the time I told my cousins that whoever won a fight between them could get next on the X-Box. Of course, I immediately felt bad afterwards and tried to play it off as a test of their character. By then it was too late, because one of them was crumpled into a ball after receiving a drop kick in the chest from his young brother. Needless to say neither of them were allowed to play the video games that day. #NONSEQUITUR 

Golden State-Sacramento 

This is gonna be an old fashioned ass whupping, but it’ll be way better than watching the snuff film that the will be the Clippers-Rockets game.

Sunday

Phoenix-Oklahoma City This game may get up into the 120’s. Running and Gunning. Gunning and Running.

Portland-Detroit if you really wanna tap that vein or avoid NFL (Is it the playoffs yet????).

Monday This will be the best day of the week for watching hoops.

Grizzlies-Clippers, Detroit-Golden State will be interesting (at this point I have to tune into every Dubs game just on principle). Ditto to the Spurs-Kings, and I must admit that I’m curious about that Hawks-Teen Wolves matchup.

Alright. Time to bounce before I burn up all of my planning period.

Peace.

BM

#thisagoodassgame

@clickpicka79

bobbymickey@gmail.com

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