A few years ago, I started out doing research on North Carolina basketball, but now I’m a legitimate fan of the program that the late, great Dean Smith made into a basketball juggernaut and eventually, a national brand. My deep dive into the program introduced me to so many legendary stories and it brought back quite a few high school memories. Few coaches have impacted the sport on the level Dean Smith (and Roy Williams to some degree) did both as a coach and an ambassador. I have always found inspiration in the positive ways that he touched so many lives.

Which is why it hurts to see how far the program has fallen. They are dangerously close to being perceived in similar light to programs such as UCLA and Indiana; two prominent college programs coasting on the accomplishments of the past. Although they are merely a season removed from being within one rebound of a national championship, I get the sense the program is trending in the wrong direction. In my opinion, the administration did not set Hubert Davis up to be at his most successful as the next UNC head coach. Carolina is a Rolls Royce of a program and very few rational parents would give the keys of their classic Rolls Royce to a first time driver without at least some supervision.

In their desire to keep the next hire “in the UNC family”, there were few strong options to succeed the retiring Roy Williams. I’m surprised that the administration would hire a first time head coach without also hiring an older, veteran consultant on the bench beside Hubert Davis. In the NBA, Steve Kerr had Alvin Gentry, Ron Adams, and Mike Brown. Phil Jackson had Tex Winter. Penny Hardaway had North Carolina’s very own Larry Brown. I think this would’ve mitigated (to some degree) any unnecessary turbulence that Coach Davis and the team experienced early on.

While Coach Davis should get a pass for the many missteps that first head coaches deal with, it is a bit baffling that Davis had a direct pipeline to two of the greatest to ever hold a clipboard, but yet; decided to go in a different direction stylistically. Coach Smith won 879 games playing with 2 big rebounders, fast breaking and secondary breaking, while Coach Roy Williams won over 400 games at both Kansas and UNC playing the same way. Coach Davis had the fortune of being in direct line of the Carolina blueprint, but it feels like he made his job harder than it has to be. Of all the coaches he played under and worked for, Davis adopting the style of Don Nelson’s gimmicky Nellie Ball (although fun at times to watch) has proven to be the least winningest approach to playing basketball.

One could argue that making the NCAA Final Four was in hindsight, fool’s gold (let’s be honest, they should’ve lost to Baylor), and that the 2022 season was full of red flags that weren’t as apparent because the team finished on such a hot streak. Many fans were quick to blame the players for last season’s rough ride, and some expressed a collective sigh of relief when multiple players left the program for various reasons. Although the players are responsible for playing defense, making baskets, and executing plays, the ultimate blame should lay on the coach. I for one, didn’t think Hubert Davis took enough accountability for last season’s results, and it feels like the media was a little too passive in their criticism of Coach Davis.

For instance, lets look at Coach Smith’s personal philosophy for coaching; detailed in his book, “Basketball: Multiple Offenses and Defenses.” Here are the tenets as follow:

1) Utilize personnel as effectively as possible

2) Encourage team play–achieve results through cooperation and unselfish effort on the part of every player.

3) Look to fast break at every opportunity

4) Concentrate on the high-percentage shot with good offensive rebounding coverage.

5) Multiple offense: Major emphasis on a free-lance offense, with rules along with some set offenses to make use of personnel.

6) Eliminate element of surprise by having team thoroughly prepared to meet all possible defenses.

7) Vary the offense throughout each game to prevent the defense from preparing too easily, or becoming accustomed a singular style of play.

When you look at these basic tenets of Coach Smith’s own philosophy and compare it with the last 2 seasons, it is easy to see the contrast in coaching philosophies. Coach Davis often looked like a chess player who refused to use all of his pieces, neglecting the station to station pieces in favor of his power pieces. He rarely subbed, and players rarely (if ever) gave the “tired signal” to come out of the game for even a minute. I think this is why they often seemed to wilt late into the 2nd half of games. Plays were not executed as crisply as they needed to be, players often looked lazy on defensive rotations and fighting through screens, and rebounds weren’t secured down the stretch, resulting in offensive teams retaining their possession.

Many fans saw this as laziness, or lack of desire, but to quote Jimmy Johnson, “fatigue makes cowards of us all.” Had Coach Davis trusted his bench more to play through their mistakes, there is a good chance that players would’ve showed more confidence in important moments down the stretch of conference play. Davis often said he wanted to employ a more NBA style of substitution patterns, but being a sub in the NBA differs from being a bench player in the college game. With only 40 minutes in the college game, there is less minutes available to share between positions, and it is extremely difficult to establish any sort of rhythm playing 4-5 minutes every 2 games or so. 18,19, and 20 year-olds need to play to learn how to play. It is completely different from being an adult and being a professional.

I also think that using his bench more would’ve allowed Davis to press more on defense. When the team was struggling to score points on offense, employing an occasional press could’ve kickstarted some fast break opportunities resulting in more easy baskets– or at least more foul shots. Creating 4 extra turnovers could have been the difference between getting their names called on Selection Sunday or turning down an NIT invitation. I often read that last year’s team just wasn’t that talented, and was a roster of non shooters; which may be true, but I also think the players weren’t utilized to their strengths (Coaches like Bill Self and Kelvin Sampson have often done more with less talent than Davis had last season).

Running a five out offense only works if you have Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala on the court (as many copycat NBA teams are finding out–shooting 30 3’s a game is already looking like a fad). Davis’ inability to adjust to his personnel cost the Tar Heels a chance to evaluate the players they already had, and showed potential recruits and transfers that Hubert Davis might be inflexible, and refuses to play his bench. There was a short period last season where the team looked like they were figuring things out (with Pete Nance out of the lineup and eventually coming on as a reserve) with a three guard lineup of Seth Trimble, R.J. Davis, and Caleb Love. The team looked quicker and the ball advanced down and around the court smoother with more fluidity, but this proved to be temporary.

Soon, Pete Nance was healthy again to start and the offense bogged down. A large contingent of fans wanted to put the majority of blame on Caleb Love, and although some of the criticism was deserved, he often got the ball with 5 seconds left and was expected to make a play. There was very little off the ball movement and the offense looked stagnant and unimaginative. Armando Bacot never developed much of a game away from the basket and his footwork in the post was often one dimensional. If we want to give Hubert Davis a pass for last season due to his team being limited, I am okay with that. What I am not okay with is the lack of adjustments both in game and in season.

I don’t give him a pass for the players not getting better down the stretch and showing improvement, and frankly, saying this team wasn’t that good implies that Coach Davis can only win when he has players better than everyone else (as opposed to Bill Self who can beat you with his or flip the teams and beat you with your own). And although most of last year’s team has left and a slew of transfers have come in , unless Hubert Davis makes some necessary coaching adjustments, next season will be one of being in the middle of the road (while further up that road Duke looks to flirt with yet another Final Four season).

With promising transfers from West Virginia (PF James Okonkwo), Louisville (forward Jae’Lyn Withers), Brown (guard Paxson Wojcik), Stanford (forward Harrison Ingram), and Notre Dame (guard Cormac Ryan) joining the team, and highly touted Elliot Cadeau looking to run point, Carolina should on paper, be better, stylistically and statistically. I also like the addition of former point guard, Marcus Paige to the bench as director of player development. Going forward, I also like the idea of the university hiring a general manager to alleviate Hubert Davis’ off the court duties (imagine had they had one of these back in 1998 when Coach Smith retired because he grew tired of all the duties not involved with coaching).

As of today, the team doesn’t have nearly enough front court depth. They lack a true backup for Armando Bacot, and they are thin at the 4 position (I’m curious how the team’s rebounding numbers will be next season). Let’s also remember how fragile starting lineups are. All it takes is an injury to a key starter to completely derail a team’s season. Come next March, we will see just how much Davis has learned from his first 2 seasons.

For better or worse, I think he will do just well enough to keep his job for the next two or three seasons. I think they will do well enough to make the tournament and then get knocked out the first or second weekend. My biggest fear for the program is UNC will be a school that instead of hanging Final Four banners, they will be known for raising banners for making the Sweet 16. Which is obviously great for other schools, but that is not the North Carolina standard that Coach Smith set and Coach Williams upheld. Sadly, it feels like that is the road they are heading towards: neither great nor awful, just fine–a nice program with a tremendous Hall of Fame museum. I hope that I’m wrong.

Bob E. Freeman