Guest posts

You Can’t Predict The Future: Kristaps Porzingis Edition

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Guest Post By Alex Knapp

Let’s play a little game.

Below are 5 different unnamed players, and their stats for their rookie season.
Now don’t cheat – but one of them is Kristaps Porzingis. I SAID DON’T CHEAT. 

(Player 1)

MPG 34.3,  PPG 16.1, APG 2.8,  RPG 2.6, SPG 1,   BPG 0.4, FG% .456, 3pt% .389

(Player 2)
MPG 27.4,  PPG 13.1, APG 1.1,  RPG 8.1, SPG 0.8, BPG 2.0, FG% .431, 3pt% .316

(Player 3)
MPG 37.2,  PPG 20.1, APG 5.8,  RPG 5.3, SPG 1.5, BPG 0.4, FG% .458, 3pt% .255

(Player 4)
MPG 25.1,  PPG 11.6, APG 0.8,  RPG 3.9, SPG 0.5, BPG 0.8, FG% .427, 3pt% .373 

(Player 5)
MPG 22.1,  PPG 9.0,   APG 0.4,  RPG 5.0, SPG 0.3, BPG 1.2, FG% .503, 3pt% .000

So why am I doing this?

I’m trying to prove a couple points (I’ll reveal who each player is in a second). First let me say, I personally, as a self-indoctrinated basketball analyst,  put a large emphasis on statistics. I actually do think they matter.

I love advanced metrics, and I think you CAN get almost as much from diving into a team or players game data as you can watching the actual game. Calm down I said “almost.” By the way this is my favorite website right now –  GO BUCK WILD!

I believe that good players produce positive statistics for them and their team(Al Jefferson), the best players can do this at an extremely high level while still being super efficient (Steph Curry). And worse players fall short in one of those two categories. This is how you can have a guy who scores a lot, but still “sucks balls.”

SIDE NOTE: A guy like Andrew Wiggins doesn’t “suck balls” but he is 16th in PPG, while being 72nd in offensive efficiency in the NBA. That’s the largest disparity of any of top 30 NBA ppg leaders.

That would tell me that Wiggins probably takes a ton of hard shots, Iso’s way to much, doesn’t get easy scores, and generally isn’t ready for the alpha-dog role that he’s been pushed into on such a young team. Andrew Wiggins being forced to be the T-Wolves best player/scorer is the reason they are 11-16, although I think that team has a ton of talent and could be great in a couple years.

Anyway, let’s get into it.

Player 1 = Eric Gordon.

Played a ton of minutes his rookie year, scored well, generally filled up the stat sheet, shot very well from the 3pt line – especially for a rookie.

Player 2 = Kristaps Porzingis.

Decent scoring (although not anything special, especially for being the 2nd option (green light) on a shit team in the east). By far the best rebounder of the list. 2 blocks per game is solid. Shooting percentages are okay

Player 3 = Tyreke Evans.

Played a Metric fuck-ton of minutes. Great scorer. He gets assists (cuz he had the ball a ton), great rebounder for his size and position. Good FG%, shit 3pt %.
Had by far the best per 36 minute stats of everyone. Won rookie of the year (deserved it).

Player 4 = Andrea Bargnani.

Scored okay, underwhelming rebound numbers, didn’t do much else, shooting %’s are solid.

Player 5 = Lamarcus Aldridge.

Played least amount of minute of the 5, scoring was nothing special, rebounded okay – not great, good field goal percentage.

So looking at those stats, here is how these players would rank from best to worst:

1) Tyreke Evans
2) Eric Gordon OR Kristaps Porzingis
4) Andrea Bargnani
5) Lamarcus Aldridge. 

Do you think anyone predicted Lamarcus Aldridge would turn into a perennial all-star? He became a franchise cornerstone that at one point was a top 10 player in the NBA, and arguably the best player at his position, certainly the most skilled.

Conversely what do you think the media / fans reaction to Tyreke’s rookie season stats was?

Here’s a quote – “He’s going to be the hero for the Sacramento Kings.” WELL THAT WAS FUCKING WRONG, RIGHT?
Read this article for a look at the Tyreke hype:

So here is a fact, stats collected during a rookie season are not indicative of the number of all-star games, all NBA teams, or MVP’s that players will win.

However, they are usually a predictor of at least general future statistics and NBA aptitude. All the players above are at the very least solid NBA rotation players–if not starters, with Larmarcus being a perennial all-star.

I like to think of it as – “Do you even belong in this league / in the starting lineup?” test.
That’s probably the only thing someone can really get from a rookie campaign.

Ultimately, players that get an opportunity to play significant minutes and get offense touches on shit teams, put up numbers. And while Andrea Bargnani has never produced to the level that Toronto wanted with their #1 pick, he’s been in the league for 10 years, had a couple decent scoring seasons in Toronto, and still gets minutes at 30 years old. The guy is nowhere near the big bust people make him out to be.

Speaking of Bargnani – notice anything interesting from the stats above?
How about the fact that Porgingis is just a better rebounding Bargnani. HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT!???

In fact, the only thing that stands out statistically about Porzingis is his rebounding. He seems to be a pretty special offensive rebounder (top 15 in ORPG and OffRebRate), while also being a solid defensive rebounder (top 35 in DRPG and DefRebRate).

Of course the SportsCenter highlights would lead you to believe he’s one of the best put-back rebounders/shot blockers of all time. All this being said, Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT) is close behind in offensive rebounds, while essentially shitting on him in every other statistical category.

Listen: this guy is good–fuck he was a top 3 pick in the pick in the NBA draft. A ton of analysts said he would be good. Anyone who watched summer league or youtube clips knew he could shoot and was long as hell.

Really when you think about it, it was all the Knicks fans who were furious that they took him at #3. It was all the Knicks fans and NY media that doubted his ability. And now that he is playing well (he is literally playing  pretty fucking average), itis all the Knicks fans that are freaking out (to relatively normal numbers all things considered).

There are only a handful of cities/markets/teams that could lower the expectations of their own player by fan and media criticisms, only to yell “fuck you all, I told you!” once the player exceeds those lower expectations.

It’s kind of genius when you think about it. Let’s always say our players are going to suck, so if they do suck we’re right, and if they are good we can be pissed off that people said they sucked (even though it was us). Only in New York, these people are assholes.

P.S – Here is the last time this happened in NY.

 

 

Alex Knapp is a Portlander living in Brooklyn, New York for the past 7 years.
A filmmaker and actor currently working in HR to pay the bills, Alex is an avid NBA basketball fan who likely has an opinion on every team and every player, seriously – try him. 

How to Age As A Fan: Jordan Paladino

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When Kobe Bryant announced his retirement, part of me felt as resigned as Mr. Bean Bryant. Growing up as a Celtics and Blazers fan, there shouldn’t have been any way I’d feel bad for Kobe. He was the guy who handed the Trail Blazers the worst Western Conference Finals loss I can remember and the overall worst loss in my life as a sports fan (2010 NBA Finals Game 7).

kobe_bryant_trayvon_martin_comment

Kobe is just one of the guys who made sports what it is to me today. When Kobe is gone, it’ll just be Paul Pierce and Tim Duncan left for me to cling to as a late 90’s NBA fan. Garnett is going to retire after this season, Ray Allen hasn’t played anytime recently, and likely won’t. Living in the listicle era, everyone has been posting their top 10 NBA players of all time, and many people have Kobe as the second best shooting guard of all time, behind Michael Jordan. As an overall player, I don’t how why Duncan isn’t ranked ahead of Kobe, but that’s ultimately semantics.

kobe_bryant_extension

Kobe was a player I’d hated my whole life, until he tore his Achilles ’13. I had started to respect Kobe after the 2012 Olympics though. Seeing what intangibles a player needed to win the way Bryant did coincided with my turn from being a fan of teams, to being a fan of players and the sport itself.

Kobe was gutsy. He was arrogant. He took Brandy to prom. In hating him and spending so much time thinking about Bryant, I realized that I respected him, and wished he’d been on any team I’d rooted for. How could you not want a guy who wanted the ball in the last :45 seconds of a game?

 

Kobe Bryant in the 2015/2016 season, however, isn’t that guy. I can’t honestly remember seeing someone so good be so bad. I’d say I feel bad for Kobe, but I respect the guy too much to feel bad. Rather, I feel sad. This is the first time I can recall in my sporting fan life where I’ve seen someone lose it so hard. It’s hard not to be affected by it. It is like seeing your father forget that he just asked you what the movie you just saw was, or when your grandparents send you the birthday check they’d meant to send to your other cousin who’s birthday is nowhere near yours.

5-kobe-bryant-championships-reasons-why-kobe-bryant-should-retire

As we get older, our capacity for empathy and how we see life changes and softens. No longer are we hardwired to hate basketball players for any reason other than spousal abuse or latent homophobia. If sports is a microcosm of greater society, seeing someone age should alarm us before it fills us with joy. In seeing Kobe breakdown, let us take a minute to appreciate how special Tim Duncan has been. These guys aren’t going to be around forever, and neither are we.

 

SONG OF THE WEEK:

Kevin Abstract – “Echo”

 

Jordan Paladino is a Portland comedian, rapper, and writer for the show “Who’s the Ross?” He is a staunch defender of all things Lebron James, Drake and Kanye West. He is also a KD hater. I try not to hold these things against him.

 

The 35/55 Rule : A Guest Post by Alex Knapp

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Let’s get one thing straight. I’m a Portland Trail Blazer fan. I WANT them to win.
I’m not going to hide my bias or pretend I don’t care about the outcome of a game, or even the ten thousand variables that went into said outcome of that game (if a Pat Connaughton flaps his wings).
In fact, I’m going to use this bias and knowledge of the team to better inform my predictions of their success this season. After all, this is the team I read about and watch the most – shouldn’t I be relatively knowledgeable about them? And aren’t I capable as a rational human to formulate thoughts that aren’t only purely based out of emotional feelings towards the success of the team?
“THE BLAZERS ARE THE BEST CUZ I LIKE THEM A LOT.” – dumb fan with zero basketball knowledge or insight
Therefore, I wrote in my previous guest post – and will continue to believe that they win less than 27.5 games this season (the Vegas over/under).

Now we are 5 games into the season and the Blazers are 3-2. Fans are scoffing at the 27.5 win line, with most eyeing a 35-40 win season, and the select few who wear Rose city colored glasses lamenting an 8th seeded playoff berth – “Listen, CJ is a top 5 SG in the league and Ed Davis is a skinny Z-bo. WE ARE GETTING THE 8th SEED!”

Yet, I’m holding strong.

I don’t think the Blazers have the horses to consistently put up enough points in the stacked west. I think our team is made up of unproven, slightly above average – mismatched  pieces, with horrible perimeter defense from our starting guards, and a general lack of rim protection behind that. I think we lose a lot of close 4th quarter games, and are always at risk of blowing a big lead that we get early in the game. Make no mistake, this team is lottery bound. AND THAT’S OKAY!!!!! 

Now that we’ve got that out of the way…to why we are actually here….

The 35/55 rule.
I’ve developed a simple theory/mathematical equation to predict the probability of the Blazers success this season. By keying in on a few simple box scores numbers, I believe I could successfully tell you the outcome of a game, without having the final score revealed to me.

This theory revolves around the scoring of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Separately and in conjunction.
Why? because their scoring is the single most consistent thing about this team, or at least fans of them winning hope it is.
It’s also the greatest predictor of our offense putting up enough numbers to be even competitive in any game.
The difference between Aminu putting in 6 and 18 points essentially has no baring on whether we win or lose.
Ed Davis playing solid defense and snagging 12 rebounds isn’t a strong enough correlation to us winning games.

Simply put no one else on this team impacts the game enough to make a difference – other than Dame and CJ’s scoring output.

So let’s look at some numbers:

Game 1:  37 + 21  = 58  = W
Game 2:  16 + 24  = 40  = L
Game 3:  15 + 23  = 38  = L
Game 4:  18 + 34  = 52  = W
Game 5:  27 + 35  = 62  = W

Are we noticing a trend…..?

It’s really simple guys, the first column is CJ’s points that game, the second column is Dame’s points that game, and the third column is their combined points.

Each time one of them scores close to 35 points, and combined they score close to 55, they win.
Each they don’t do both of those things, they lose.

Let’s take a second look with everything labeled:

               CJ     Dame     Both   Outcome
Game 1:  37  +   21      = 58     = W
Game 2:  16  +   24      = 40     = L
Game 3:  15  +   23      = 38     = L
Game 4:  18  +   34      = 52     = W

Game 5:  27  +   35      = 62     = W

My prediction : They will continue to win whenever the 35/55 rule is reached, and will continue to lose every game it’s not.
Now this isn’t an exact science, if Henderson comes back and puts up big numbers or Aminu gets hot and puts in 25+ one game (allowing CJ to take a night off), then those nights the rule won’t be reached and the Blazers might get the Win. I hope they do.
However, I truly think around 85% of games this year (70 games) will fall under the 35/55 rule, and it will become the easiest predictor of success for the Blazers this season.

This is also why I believe Lillard has a punchers chance of the Points Per Game title.
He will need to average close to 28 ppg if this team is going to win any where close to 30 games.
Take a gander at the box scores every night and do the math in your head…you’ll start to see I’m right. I’ll post another update to this rule every 20 games or so just to show the progress.

Alex Knapp is a Portlander living in Brooklyn, New York for the past 7 years.
A filmmaker and actor currently working in HR to pay the bills, Alex is an avid NBA basketball fan who likely has an opinion on every team and every player, seriously – try him. 

OVERREACTIONS : Guest Post by Jordan Paladino

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Apple Pie. Bruce Springsteen. Overreacting to a small sample size. These are some of the most American things I can think of. In honor of America, here’s my NBA Week One Overreactions.

NUMBER ONE: Steph Curry will be the NBA Scoring Champion. Steph is currently averaging 37.0 pts/gm (as of November 4) and is shooting .595/.488/.964 and he’s going to keep those numbers up. NBA blowhards have been raving about Curry’s shooting since he joined the league, and this is going to be Steph’s historic year.

His 50.25 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is the best in the NBA, and way above the highest all time of 31.82 by Wilt Chamberlain in 62-63. So this season, Steph will be the scoring champion, have the best 50/40/90 percentages ever, have the NBA’s all time best PER, and the Warriors are on-line to repeat as Champions, which brings me to my number two overreaction…

NUMBER TWO: The San Antonio Spurs will not reach the Western Conference Semifinals this season. Take away Kawhi Leonard and what do the Spurs really have? Their best player is a 39-year-old Tim Duncan (who’s a top 10 all time player), Tony Parker on a definite career decline since the 2012 NBA Finals loss to my beloved (at the time) Miami Heat, an uninspiring lifetime loser (LaMarcus Aldridge), and a fat French guy (Uncle Boris Diaw).

Gregg Poppovich is a great coach, and the Spurs draft and scout as well as anyone, but the Blazers used Aldridge as their offensive focal point for a decade and got out of the first round once. The Spurs are coming off a first round loss to the Clippers (who no one likes and everyone always thinks are overrated AND underachievers). Speaking of the Blazers…

NUMBER THREE: The Portland Trail Blazers will win 35 games. Damian Lillard is the scorer that Rip City has needed since Clyde “The Glide” Drexler. A longstanding trend I’ve noticed as a Blazer fan is that Portland hasn’t had a top 5 scoring leader for as long as I can remember or care to look up. Lillard is going to bring that to Portland in 2015-2016. Ed Davis is going to be considered the sneaky good signing of the offseason.

Ed Davis was a beast at North Carolina (and a National Champion), put up great numbers in limited minutes in Toronto, Memphis, and Los Angeles, and is covering up how poorly Meyers Leonard has been this season. Al-Farouq Aminu is putting up 15 and 9 a game (I’ve been an Aminu fan since his time with the Clippers) and is turning into the perimeter defender that will hide the fact that Big Game (No Defense) Dame and CJ “Give Him A BJ And Put This Game In The Win” McCollum can’t play a lick of defense. On to the east…

NUMBER FOUR: The Miami Heat will make the Eastern Conference Finals. Dwyane Wade will use the power of Gabrielle Union to stay healthy, Chris Bosh being healthy can take the Heatles offense to a new height with the emergence of Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic is a facilitating point guard who can distribute the ball to Wade, Bosh, Whiteside (at the basket, which is something Miami hasn’t paired with balanced scoring and ball movement since 2006 when they won the Championship with an assist from the referees), and Luol Deng.

Miami’s bench also has Justise Winslow, who should have been taken in the top 3 after seeing how awful D’Angelo Jenner-Russell has been. Amare in limited minutes can give the Heat some energy off the bench when Bosh or Whiteside are resting, McRoberts is healthy this season, Gerald Green is a poor man’s Corey Brewer, and Mario Chalmer is more suited to fill his role as an eighth guy instead of starter. PS- Erik Spoelstra is the second best coach in the Eastern Conference, only behind Brad Stevens. Now to who the Heat will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals…

NUMBER FIVE: The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals. LeBron James is my favorite basketball player of all time. Much like the best West Coast rapper in the game (Vince Staples) there’s context to this next statement. LeBron James is the best basketball player of all time, based off what I’ve seen with my own two eyes. Michael Jordan this, Magic Johnson that.

LeBron James has been the best player in the league for last 8 years, and this year is no different. LeBron the GM re-signed Tristan Thompson, picked up Mo Williams, and got Richard “35 years young” Jefferson to come off the bench. LeBron the coach made the genius call of making Kevin Love the catalyst of the offense, which will let Kyrie Irving ease back into the offense and take a load off the rest of the team until the playoffs when the Cavs will be healthy. A full season of Mozgov, Shumpert’s development as a shooter and continued flourishing as a defender, and Matthew Dellavedova will break at least one Chicago Bull or Miami Heat players arm.

STRAY OVERREACTIONS:

Rookie Of The Year: Kristaps Porzingis. Kristy and Langston Galloway (best name in the NBA, hands down) are going to bring New York basketball back to the playoffs (next year), and once Derek Fisher leaves my beloved Knickerbockers are going to be challenging the Cavs for the 2017-2018 Eastern Conference Finals.

Coach Of The Year: Brad Stevens. Stevens would have won last year if the Celtics had a winning record, and the writers who vote for the award are dying to give this guy the award to prove how ahead of the curve they are (even though we all know Stevens is a genius coach). By the way, Marcus Smart will win Most Improved Player.

Premature Coronation Of The Year: Anthony Davis. The Pelicans suck. I’ve watched three of their games and not liked anything I’ve seen. Davis’ shot isn’t falling, Tyreke isn’t anything, and Ryan Anderson is done. The Pelicans won’t make the playoffs, and Russell Westbrook will be considered the next “Best Player” in the NBA after LeBron.

Since these are overreactions, I reserve the right to go back on any declarative statement I’ve made, but if any of these are right everyone must bow down to my immense basketball acumen.

Listen to Young Thug.

Jordan Paladino is a Portland comedian, rapper, and writer for the show “Who’s the Ross?” He is a staunch defender of all things Lebron James, Drake and Kanye West. He is also a KD hater. I try not to hold these things against him.

Guest Post By Jordan Paladino: Fuck Kevin Durant

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[Editor’s Note: Although I don’t agree with ANY of the assertions posted below, I did find the piece to be funny and well written. It’s also the perfect counterpoint to today’s earlier post on RUN-OKC.] 

Kevin Durant is a six-time All Star, five time All-NBA First Teamer, Rookie of the Year in 2008, and NBA MVP in 2014. He also has the honor of being my least favorite player in the NBA.

Our star crossed hate stems from a place of honest and sincere love. Growing up in Portland, OR (Go Blazers, I guess), I remember being one of two kids in my high school that has hoping our home team Trail Blazers would draft Kevin Durant over Greg Oden (shoutout to David Skolnik, being on Team Durant with me).

As it became more and more clear that the Blazers would be drafting Greg Oden, the more I, a noted contrarian, doubled down on the Durant love. I would tell my classmates that Durant would be twice the player Oden was within two years of the draft.

Greg Oden famously missed more games than he played in Portland, and the rest was history on his end. When Kevin Durant was a lowly Seattle SuperSonic (R.I.P.) he was likable. He could light up the Clippers for 40 one night and torch the 15-67 Miami Heat on a back to back. The SuperSonics sucked in 2008, but Durant was fun to watch, even if no one was paying attention.

In the offseason of 2008, something changed. I remember it pretty clearly too. People were getting over their love of Kobe, LeBron was too popular, and Bill Simmons declared Durant to be his favorite player in the league. Durant started to become the hip and in vogue player to declare your favorite when pressed by inquiring and basketball loving minds.

I let my love of Durant dwindle as the populace started taking notice. By the time 2010-2011 rolled around and Durant was named to his first All-Star game, won his first scoring title, and would be the FIBA World Championship MVP if not for the NBA player who casual fans never appreciated as much as they should (for no real reason other than people suck), decided he was tired of his home team and decided to link up with the greatest Toronto Raptor of all time, and a former Finals MVP. I of course am speaking of LeBron James.

Yes, my hatred of Durant stems from my love of LeBron. Look, I admit it. I love LeBron, and now that a lot of NBA fans hate LeBron for doing something that we all would do (look for championships when we already had more money than we’d ever need), I loved LeBron even more. The select group of “smart” NBA fans (aka the ones who didn’t care that LeBron left Cleveland) took umbrage with Derrick “No Knees” Rose winning the 2011 MVP over the clearly superior James.

King James did not make it easy on himself that year though. “The Decision” was poorly planned, his desire to be the bad guy in front of booing fans, and his ever-growing headband all made him look like the kind of guy who didn’t really understand what he was doing to his public image, which he clearly cared very deeply about.

Once the 2011 playoffs kicked off, LeBron went to a level of play as an individual and as a teammate that I’d not seen since Michael Jordan. King James averaged (rounding up) 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists per game in a 4-1 trouncing of the Chicago Bulls (perennial underachievers since the departure of Jordan).

Rose scored less, shot worse, and turned the ball over more than LeBron, for those keeping score at home. Miami was ready for the Mavericks in the Finals, and should have won in no more than 6 games.

But LeBron lost his first trip to the Finals with the Heat in one of the most bizarre and un-starlike performances I’ve seen in my years of watching basketball. Dwyane Wade was Miami’s best player, by a mile, and LeBron played almost as poorly as Derrick Rose (yeah, I don’t like Derrick Rose at all) in the Conference Finals the round before. I was sad. LeBron’s stock had never been lower, and Durant’s had never been higher. Something had to come to a head.

The 2011-2012 NBA season wasn’t of great note, other than the fact that LeBron won the MVP, Durant lead Oklahoma City past the, at the time, best team I’d ever seen San Antonio Spurs, and Derrick Rose blew out his knee in the first playoff game he played in that postseason. Finally, I had what I wanted. I had my guy playing against my least favorite guy.

LeBron wiped the floor with Durant (who cried when they lost) and Russell Westbrook was the best player on OKC. I couldn’t have been happier. The 2012-2013 season came and went, with LeBron winning another MVP and another NBA Championship, and Durant being boring and uncool.

I loved LeBron as much as any NBA player I ever have and hated Durant as much as any professional athlete I have ever hated (except for athletes who beat women or commit murders). Durant started to buy in to his “I’m the second best, and i’m tired of it, bruh!” narrative.

The more that Durant lived life in the spotlight the more I started to hate him. He had the lamest coach in the NBA (Scott Brooks), the coolest teammate in the NBA (Russell Westbrook), and still had acne. Durant was caught using homophobic slurs, cheering on battle rappers, and beefing with the Based God (Lil B).

Surely this was enough to get people to start hating Durant, right? Wrong! He could do no wrong! It wasn’t his fault he played for a bad coach, it wasn’t his fault that Russ shot too much, it wasn’t his fault their GM traded away James Harden. Why were excuses being made for Durant that weren’t being made for LeBron?

Why was LeBron clowned for losing his hair when Durant is balding himself? People like Durant because he doesn’t have tattoos (he does). They like him because he’s a nice young man (if using gay slurs and calling out the media makes you a nice young man… so be it).

People cried when Durant thanked his mother “You the real MVP” at his MVP press conference, and I’ll admit I thought it was very heartfelt, but then I remembered Kevin Durant has never won a Finals ring and beefed with Lil B.

Now when people ask me my favorite players in the NBA I answer before the question is out of their mouth. LeBron. Second favorite? Russ. Who do I think will be the MVP of the 2015-2016 season? Harden. Coincidence? No.

“Fuck Kevin Durant” – Lil B

Jordan Paladino is a Portland comedian, rapper, and writer for the show “Who’s the Ross?” He is a staunch defender of all things Lebron James, Drake and Kanye West. He is also a KD hater. I try not to hold these things against him.

TAKING A GAMBLE [Guest Post by Alex Knapp]

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Taking a gamble….

This is it guys. This is the NBA season that ruins my life. I have finally decided to put my money where my mouth is, and bet on sports…

Is this a good idea? No! It’s a fucking horrible idea. Is that going to stop me? No! I fucking love horrible ideas.

Because sometimes in life a man decides he has to do something with the useless knowledge that he has accrued. Why do guys salivate at the idea of a having a wood-shop in their basement? Why did your step-dad buy that beat up 1970’s charger? They picked up a few tidbits about building large pictures frames, or how to properly oil a carburetor and god-dammit that’s knowledge they want to use!

Here’s my plan:

I work a ten minute walk away from The Barclays center. My plan is to go to a game every other week for the entire season. I’m shooting for 10-15 games.

This way I can have in-person 1st hand knowledge of over 1/3rd of the league, which will come in handy down the road.

Also, I have league pass. My plan here is to watch at least half of the Blazers games (around 40) over the course of the season, and keep notes on all the teams they play.

In conjunction with both of these,  obviously I’m going to watch a marquee game or two each week on TNT and ESPN.

Needless to say, this NBA season is going to packed!

The Goal:

My hope is that if I watch about 10-15 games in person, 40-60 games on TV, and continue to read and listen to copious amount of analysis on a daily basis, that I will be educated enough come playoff times to make some seriously smart and decisive bets.

How this could work:

Milwaukee plays the Bulls in the 1st round?

I’ve watched both teams in-person and on TV 3 times that season.

Bulls favored to win the series 4-2?–even though the eye test tells me the Bucks speed and versatility could out-match the Bulls lumbering offense and Tib-less Defense.

Did Derrick Rose look like he was gonna quit on Froi-berg 1/2 way through the season, and does he sulk on the bench anytime he gets subbed out and Jimmy Butler starts to go off without him on the floor?

I’ll take the Bucks in 7.

THIS COULD MAKE ME MONEY!!!!!

*Shakes head and extends hands as if to say “come on guys!”*

To get us started, and to have things to talk about as the season progresses – Here are a list of some over/unders and prop bets that I like before the season has begun. Not just based on who I think will win it – but also where the betting value is.

All of these are taken from bovada.com (https://sports.bovada.lv/basketball/nba-season-props)

PPG leader – Anthony Davis (+500)

Rebounds Per Game  – Demarcus Cousins (+1100)

MVP – Anthony Davis (+400), Blake Griffin (+2000)

Rookie of the year – Mudiay probably wins, BUT – Stanley Johnson (+1000), Mario Hezonja (+1400)

Atlanta Hawks (49.5) – Over : DeMarre Carroll was not worth 10 games.

Brooklyn Nets (27.5) – Under : God I hope they win more games than that, but this team is trash. It’s gonna be a long season at Barclays.

Charlotte Hornets (33.5) – Under : No MKG, adding Batum is a wash. Other teams in the east are getting better = more hard games for the Hornets.

Dallas Mavericks (37.5) – Over: Won 50 games last year and swapped Tyson & Monte, for Wes, D-will, and Zaza. They have won more than 37 games in 15 out of the last 16 seasons and this isn’t their worst team. I’d bet my life on this.

Detroit Pistons (36.5) – Over: Won 32 games last year, and added Marcus Morris, Stanley Johnson (*See Rookie of the Year*), Aron Baynes, and a full season of Reggie Jackson. Losing Greg Monroe might be a wash, and another year of Stan is worth at least 4 wins.

LA Lakers (28.5) – Over : Pains me to say it, but young/talented guards with Roy Hibbert and Kobe is a recipe for 30 wins. They won 21 games last year with no Kobe and no Roy. Together they are worth 10-15 wins.

Miami Heat (45.5) – Over: If the Heat can stay healthy I think this is the 2nd seed in the East, which history would show as 50-55 wins.

Milwaukee Bucks (44.4) – Over: They won 41 games last year, I think Monroe + Jabari + another year of Kidd = more than 3 wins.

New Orleans Pelicans (48.5) – Over: This is risky, but I think they are a top 6 seed in the West this season which usually means 48+ wins. I think the upgrade in Gentry is worth 4 wins alone, not to mention The Brow – *See PPG leader and MVP*

NY Knicks (29.5) – Under : This team is trash. D-Fish doesn’t know what he is doing. Melo is getting older and fatter. The more Porzingis “The Zinger” plays the more games they will lose, even though they should play him the whole game (the only way he will get better).

Orlando Magic (33.5) – Over: I like this team, they’re fun.

Phoenix Suns (36.5) – Under : I think this thing blows up in Horny-sacks face. T-Chandler on that massive contract was idiotic. And I don’t think this team can score or stop anyone from scoring on the perimeter.

Portland Trailblazers(27.5)…….Under…… : I’m sorry….I can’t….They are going to be fun to watch, a lot of fast breaks and deep 3’s, but ultimately this team is going to suck in most statistical categories and won’t be able to stop anyone from scoring. Their best bet is to try and race to 120 points each game, even though we also don’t have proven scorers…Doh! BUT I HOPE THEY WIN!!!!!

That’s it for now.

Thanks to B-Mick for hosting my guest ramblings.

Keep checking back in to see exactly how stupid of a decision this all is.

Alex Knapp is a Portlander living in Brooklyn, New York for the past 7 years.

A filmmaker and actor currently working in HR to pay the bills, Alex is an avid NBA basketball fan who likely has an opinion on every team and every player, seriously – try him.