a lot of pro’s in this one.
BM
North Carolina
Show and Prove: How to Realistically Assess Hubert Davis’s 3rd season as a Head Coach
This season is supposed to be different. Outside of the two returning starters in R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot (and Seth Trimble and Jalen Washington coming off the bench), Hubert Davis has been presented with a fresh slate of characters to begin the 2023 season. Caleb Love can no longer be the fall guy if Carolina’s offense bogs down. Last year’s biggest failure stemmed from offensive woes. The typical excuse was there weren’t enough shooters to space the floor, and Armando Bacot couldn’t operate on the block unimpeded. Easy points were difficult to come by; wins were ugly, and losses even uglier.
All reports coming out of Chapel Hill are that this is a different team. Davis reportedly has found shooting and depth– both areas that the team was lacking in their “Run it Back” campaign. Despite there being some red flags from last season, it appears (at least on paper) that this team will not only make the tournament in March, but will also be more aesthetically pleasing to watch play basketball.
This new version of the North Carolina Tar Heels should be more competitive, more balanced and most importantly, a more cohesive unit than last season. Hubert Davis went out and got the guys he felt could run his offensive system, and this finally feels like it is his team. For better or worse, the scrutiny is going to be even harsher in his third year as the head of (probably) the richest storied basketball program in the nation. Success for this program will not only be measured as much in wins and losses, but on how well this team competes, and how much they embrace the Carolina Way. Here are some realistic milestones for UNC fans to evaluate their team.
#1 Will Hubert Davis improve as a leader and head coach?
Last year was an unequivocal disaster for the UNC program, as they not only failed to meet expectations, but frequently appeared lost on the court during critical times last season. Most of the blame felt like it was directed at the players.
Coach Dean Smith always said “Players win games, and coaches lose them.” Yet during post game press conferences, I never heard anything of the sort come out of Davis’ mouth. I’m not sure how much this impacted the locker room as a whole, but it certainly is a red flag when the coach doesn’t alleviate the blame by publicly holding himself accountable.
Whether this involves player development, in game adjustments, or bench rotations, everything falls back on the head coach. I hope this year he shields his players and absorbs the majority of the criticism, whether it be justified or not.
The good news is that this year’s roster of players will make Davis look a lot better than last season. Most of his rotation players are upperclassmen and graduate transfers. There is a big difference in coaching 18 and 19 year olds, and having young men in their early to mid 20’s. Even this season’s results need to be looked at with a great deal of context.
Coaches are truly judged on getting the most out of their roster, no matter who is on it.
Coach Roy Williams has only coached one Hall of Fame player in his career (Paul Pierce at Kansas), and Bill Self is such a talent that he can beat you with his roster and turnaround then beat you with your own roster.
This is the key difference between having a good coach and an elite coach. Great coaches highlight their player’s strengths and find a way to hide or limit their weaknesses. Coaches like Phil Jackson, Bob Knight, Lute Olson, John Chaney, Dean Smith, and even Coach K found a way to win consistently even in down years–getting the most of their roster regardless of talent or injuries.
#2 Will this roster learn the Carolina Way?
One of the great things about the transfer portal is that if a program misses the mark on their high school recruiting, they aren’t mired in a hole for a 4 year cycle with the same dud players. Each transfer portal presents itself as a mulligan, and a coach can clean house and start anew. The negative from this is that it all but guarantees players being at a program all 4 years is a thing of the past. Not a big deal at most schools, but for a program like North Carolina, the Carolina Way is retained with each returning letterman and lost with each transfer (and to some degree with a one and done). Returning players immediately show the newcomers the day to day traditions of what being a Tar Heel means (of course, Rasheed Wallace, Antawn Jamison, Jerry Stackhouse, and Vince Carter all left early, but they at least came back for second or third seasons). Those days of following a group of kids from their freshman year and watching them become a championship unit over the course of 2 to 3 seasons may be over.
I have mixed feelings about Davis changing the offensive system, but even ex players have remarked that the two bigs system became a bit stifling. There are rumors, however; that the fast break and secondary break will be reintegrated into their offense now that Carolina has a true point guard again in the heralded freshman, Elliot Cadeau. There are also rumors that Coach Davis plans to press more and will actually give his bench players bigger roles this season. Multiple offenses and defenses, and using players 6 through 12 were also a facet of Coach Smith and Roy WIlliams’ coaching philosophies. Let’s see if Davis will follow this winning formula. Maybe this season we will see more pointing to the passer.
#3 The Iron Five Part Three?
Coach Davis said the Iron Five was a thing of the past before the beginning of the 2022 season, but a few games into a tough season,it was clear that Davis didn’t trust many players outside of his six (sometimes seven) man rotation. The team ranked near the bottom in bench minutes, and not only was the team unable to withstand any injuries to Bacot or Davis, but the team seemed to wilt near the end of games during winning time. Will the tired signal make a comeback this year?
This year, Davis should have adequate backups at every position. With sophomore Seth Trimble and Brown transfer Paxson Wojcik, Davis has a four guard rotation. At times, Trimble was a great ball handler and good perimeter defender, but a reluctant shooter. It will be interesting to see if he develops his jump shot. He definitely has been in the weight room judging from all the footage I’ve seen of him this fall.
Hubert Davis will also have the luxury of two starting small forwards in Stanford transfer, Harrison Ingram (I’m assuming he will be an undersized 4 like KJ Adams over at Kansas) and Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan; with returning sophomore Jalen Washington and Jae’Lyn Withers (a forward who transferred from Louisville) coming in. With a sturdy transfer out of the Bob Huggins boot camp , James Okonkwo, and 6 ft 9, freshman Zayden High getting an opportunity to spell Armando Bacot, there are plenty of opportunities for Davis to sub.
It will be interesting to see how the minutes unfold for all the players. Although Bacot may be the team’s most valuable player, the guard position seems to be the thinnest on the depth chart. How long would Carolina be able to withstand an extended injury to either RJ Davis or Bacot?
There will be plenty of questions in store for Coach Davis if we only see the same 5-7 players on the court early into the season. From everything we’ve been told about this year’s roster, there is no reason why Davis shouldn’t be using his bench players. Maybe we’ll even see players using the “tired” signal again.
#4 Can this team score? Can this team get stops?
Based on last season’s stats, RJ Davis averaged 16.1points, Cormac Ryan 12.3 points, Harrison Ingram 10.5 points, and Armando Bacot 15.9 points. Assuming the addition of Cadeau helps everyone get better shots this season. We could see Bacot average 19 points, Davis average 19 points, Ingram increase his scoring average to 14 points, and Ryan average about 16 points a game.
That is already 68 points between four players without taking into account any scoring from Cadeau or the bench. This team could average around 75 points a game. That is the good news. The bad news is that last year’s team averaged 76.2 points, giving up about 70 points a game, and still missed the tournament. Those stats were good enough for a 20-13 season, but there were at least 4 to 6 games they could’ve easily won had they not gotten tired, or had they made a timely stop during crunch time.
Possibly their biggest problem last season is that when UNC needed a stop, they could not get one. I was in the Dean Dome when Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor were able to get to the rack any time they wanted during Duke’s win in Chapel Hill. I’m curious how their perimeter defense will look like with four guards all under 6 ‘2.
On paper, the team seems loaded at the wing position, with a bunch of guys who can be interchangeably at the small and power forward spots. With Bacot, Okonkwo and High being able to play center, there will be lots of big bodies to move in and out for rim protection. The bigs may be able to shore up the rim protection from guard penetration, but the right team will be able to move the ball around and force UNC into tough rotations–which is where teams usually give up dunks, layups, and open 3 pointers.
#5 The Elliot Cadeau Effect
There has been an awful lot of hype surrounding this young kid out of Branson, Missouri (home of the infamous Yakov “what a country!” Smirnov). Just recently, Cadeau was voted ACC Preseason Rookie of the Year (whatever that means–I’ve never understood the significance of preseason awards). Bringing former Tar Heel legend Marcus Paige onto the staff was a real wise decision by Hubert Davis. They could’ve used someone like him on the staff last year just to pull the guards aside in real time. Paige being a presence on the bench will help the development of Cadeau and make his transition to college hoops a lot easier. Cadeau’s ability to push the ball quickly will result in a lot more fast breaks and free throw attempts.
Miami and Duke both return two of the best point guards in the nation in Tyrese Proctor and Nijel Pack. I cannot wait to see how he matches up against them.
Realistic Expectations
Carolina only lost by double digits once last season (on the road against a fresher, deeper Indiana team). The majority of those losses came as a result of mental mistakes during crucial possessions. Can this team understand the value of possessions this season? That could be the difference between finishing in the top 3 in the ACC and falling with the rest of the pack. Duke and Miami will be tough, and among the best teams in the nation. Winning in the ACC is never easy, and there will be dogfights.
I see Carolina’s ceiling as a 24 win team, finishing third in their conference, and possibly a Sweet Sixteen appearance. If the team can’t execute down the stretch and we see the same rash of mental mistakes during conference play, then we could see a similar floor that Carolina hit last season (I highly doubt it, but you never know–last year’s debacle seemed unimaginable before the season started).
This may ultimately prove to be the most important season in Hubert Davis’ career. If Carolina succeeds and the team plays to its peak, I think everyone in and around the program can feel good about the direction of the brand. Elliot Cadeau has already said that he believes he is on a two year path at Carolina, which could make for an exciting 2024 with possible incoming stud recruits like 5 star guards Drake Powell and Ian Jackson, and center James Brown(4 star recruit) coming to Chapel Hill.
Adding those players to possible returnees Harrison Ingram, Jalen Washington, James Onkowkogo, Zayden High, and Seth Trimble (maybe even R.J Davis?), and you have a real exciting team to trot onto the court for Live Action next fall. Of course, If Cadeau plays himself into a lottery pick, he may change his tune.
Coaches, recruits, and fans all over the country will be watching to see how the team handles adversity, and how Coach Davis treats this year’s crop of talent. Although he has pretty much secured a great class coming into Chapel Hill for 2024, anything can change. These kids talk to each other. If Davis is ambiguous about playing time, it will get back to recruits. If it’s apparent that Davis isn’t improving as a coach, then the sample size will be large enough to confirm what many doubters had already suspected when he was hired for the job.
Davis has loads of resources at one of the best jobs on the planet, and has played for and with some of the best minds to ever coach basketball. If he isn’t successful these next couple of seasons, he will only have himself to blame. For a large number of the fan base, it will not be good enough for the Tar Heels to simply win. Fans want to see them win, and win the right way–preferably the Carolina Way.
Any coach can win with the most talent on their teams. We will soon find out if Coach Davis is just a good motivational speaker and recruiter, or a decent systems coach who can only win with the right assortment of players. Will he get the best out of his players? Will he put them in positions to succeed both in college and–for some– in the pro’s? Will they beat Duke this year?
UNC fans will need to be patient and take this season’s results with a grain of salt. These next two seasons not only will determine the course of Hubert Davis’s career, but also determine the direction of the program. One thing is for certain, we will know by year’s end just how much Hubert Davis has learned from his previous two seasons of coaching. Hang tight, Carolina fans. You’re not out of the woods yet.
BM
Bob E. Freeman is a part time teacher, part time writer, and full time basketball junky. When he isn’t involved in some basketball related activity, actively looking for parties to deejay or venues to perform comedy, you can find him banging his head on the keyboard, and trying to finish his backlog of writing projects. For booking inquiries or content proposals, send contact info to bobbymickey@gmail.com
The Middle of the Road
A few years ago, I started out doing research on North Carolina basketball, but now I’m a legitimate fan of the program that the late, great Dean Smith made into a basketball juggernaut and eventually, a national brand. My deep dive into the program introduced me to so many legendary stories and it brought back quite a few high school memories. Few coaches have impacted the sport on the level Dean Smith (and Roy Williams to some degree) did both as a coach and an ambassador. I have always found inspiration in the positive ways that he touched so many lives.
Which is why it hurts to see how far the program has fallen. They are dangerously close to being perceived in similar light to programs such as UCLA and Indiana; two prominent college programs coasting on the accomplishments of the past. Although they are merely a season removed from being within one rebound of a national championship, I get the sense the program is trending in the wrong direction. In my opinion, the administration did not set Hubert Davis up to be at his most successful as the next UNC head coach. Carolina is a Rolls Royce of a program and very few rational parents would give the keys of their classic Rolls Royce to a first time driver without at least some supervision.
In their desire to keep the next hire “in the UNC family”, there were few strong options to succeed the retiring Roy Williams. I’m surprised that the administration would hire a first time head coach without also hiring an older, veteran consultant on the bench beside Hubert Davis. In the NBA, Steve Kerr had Alvin Gentry, Ron Adams, and Mike Brown. Phil Jackson had Tex Winter. Penny Hardaway had North Carolina’s very own Larry Brown. I think this would’ve mitigated (to some degree) any unnecessary turbulence that Coach Davis and the team experienced early on.
While Coach Davis should get a pass for the many missteps that first head coaches deal with, it is a bit baffling that Davis had a direct pipeline to two of the greatest to ever hold a clipboard, but yet; decided to go in a different direction stylistically. Coach Smith won 879 games playing with 2 big rebounders, fast breaking and secondary breaking, while Coach Roy Williams won over 400 games at both Kansas and UNC playing the same way. Coach Davis had the fortune of being in direct line of the Carolina blueprint, but it feels like he made his job harder than it has to be. Of all the coaches he played under and worked for, Davis adopting the style of Don Nelson’s gimmicky Nellie Ball (although fun at times to watch) has proven to be the least winningest approach to playing basketball.
One could argue that making the NCAA Final Four was in hindsight, fool’s gold (let’s be honest, they should’ve lost to Baylor), and that the 2022 season was full of red flags that weren’t as apparent because the team finished on such a hot streak. Many fans were quick to blame the players for last season’s rough ride, and some expressed a collective sigh of relief when multiple players left the program for various reasons. Although the players are responsible for playing defense, making baskets, and executing plays, the ultimate blame should lay on the coach. I for one, didn’t think Hubert Davis took enough accountability for last season’s results, and it feels like the media was a little too passive in their criticism of Coach Davis.
For instance, lets look at Coach Smith’s personal philosophy for coaching; detailed in his book, “Basketball: Multiple Offenses and Defenses.” Here are the tenets as follow:
1) Utilize personnel as effectively as possible
2) Encourage team play–achieve results through cooperation and unselfish effort on the part of every player.
3) Look to fast break at every opportunity
4) Concentrate on the high-percentage shot with good offensive rebounding coverage.
5) Multiple offense: Major emphasis on a free-lance offense, with rules along with some set offenses to make use of personnel.
6) Eliminate element of surprise by having team thoroughly prepared to meet all possible defenses.
7) Vary the offense throughout each game to prevent the defense from preparing too easily, or becoming accustomed a singular style of play.
When you look at these basic tenets of Coach Smith’s own philosophy and compare it with the last 2 seasons, it is easy to see the contrast in coaching philosophies. Coach Davis often looked like a chess player who refused to use all of his pieces, neglecting the station to station pieces in favor of his power pieces. He rarely subbed, and players rarely (if ever) gave the “tired signal” to come out of the game for even a minute. I think this is why they often seemed to wilt late into the 2nd half of games. Plays were not executed as crisply as they needed to be, players often looked lazy on defensive rotations and fighting through screens, and rebounds weren’t secured down the stretch, resulting in offensive teams retaining their possession.
Many fans saw this as laziness, or lack of desire, but to quote Jimmy Johnson, “fatigue makes cowards of us all.” Had Coach Davis trusted his bench more to play through their mistakes, there is a good chance that players would’ve showed more confidence in important moments down the stretch of conference play. Davis often said he wanted to employ a more NBA style of substitution patterns, but being a sub in the NBA differs from being a bench player in the college game. With only 40 minutes in the college game, there is less minutes available to share between positions, and it is extremely difficult to establish any sort of rhythm playing 4-5 minutes every 2 games or so. 18,19, and 20 year-olds need to play to learn how to play. It is completely different from being an adult and being a professional.
I also think that using his bench more would’ve allowed Davis to press more on defense. When the team was struggling to score points on offense, employing an occasional press could’ve kickstarted some fast break opportunities resulting in more easy baskets– or at least more foul shots. Creating 4 extra turnovers could have been the difference between getting their names called on Selection Sunday or turning down an NIT invitation. I often read that last year’s team just wasn’t that talented, and was a roster of non shooters; which may be true, but I also think the players weren’t utilized to their strengths (Coaches like Bill Self and Kelvin Sampson have often done more with less talent than Davis had last season).
Running a five out offense only works if you have Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala on the court (as many copycat NBA teams are finding out–shooting 30 3’s a game is already looking like a fad). Davis’ inability to adjust to his personnel cost the Tar Heels a chance to evaluate the players they already had, and showed potential recruits and transfers that Hubert Davis might be inflexible, and refuses to play his bench. There was a short period last season where the team looked like they were figuring things out (with Pete Nance out of the lineup and eventually coming on as a reserve) with a three guard lineup of Seth Trimble, R.J. Davis, and Caleb Love. The team looked quicker and the ball advanced down and around the court smoother with more fluidity, but this proved to be temporary.
Soon, Pete Nance was healthy again to start and the offense bogged down. A large contingent of fans wanted to put the majority of blame on Caleb Love, and although some of the criticism was deserved, he often got the ball with 5 seconds left and was expected to make a play. There was very little off the ball movement and the offense looked stagnant and unimaginative. Armando Bacot never developed much of a game away from the basket and his footwork in the post was often one dimensional. If we want to give Hubert Davis a pass for last season due to his team being limited, I am okay with that. What I am not okay with is the lack of adjustments both in game and in season.
I don’t give him a pass for the players not getting better down the stretch and showing improvement, and frankly, saying this team wasn’t that good implies that Coach Davis can only win when he has players better than everyone else (as opposed to Bill Self who can beat you with his or flip the teams and beat you with your own). And although most of last year’s team has left and a slew of transfers have come in , unless Hubert Davis makes some necessary coaching adjustments, next season will be one of being in the middle of the road (while further up that road Duke looks to flirt with yet another Final Four season).
With promising transfers from West Virginia (PF James Okonkwo), Louisville (forward Jae’Lyn Withers), Brown (guard Paxson Wojcik), Stanford (forward Harrison Ingram), and Notre Dame (guard Cormac Ryan) joining the team, and highly touted Elliot Cadeau looking to run point, Carolina should on paper, be better, stylistically and statistically. I also like the addition of former point guard, Marcus Paige to the bench as director of player development. Going forward, I also like the idea of the university hiring a general manager to alleviate Hubert Davis’ off the court duties (imagine had they had one of these back in 1998 when Coach Smith retired because he grew tired of all the duties not involved with coaching).
As of today, the team doesn’t have nearly enough front court depth. They lack a true backup for Armando Bacot, and they are thin at the 4 position (I’m curious how the team’s rebounding numbers will be next season). Let’s also remember how fragile starting lineups are. All it takes is an injury to a key starter to completely derail a team’s season. Come next March, we will see just how much Davis has learned from his first 2 seasons.
For better or worse, I think he will do just well enough to keep his job for the next two or three seasons. I think they will do well enough to make the tournament and then get knocked out the first or second weekend. My biggest fear for the program is UNC will be a school that instead of hanging Final Four banners, they will be known for raising banners for making the Sweet 16. Which is obviously great for other schools, but that is not the North Carolina standard that Coach Smith set and Coach Williams upheld. Sadly, it feels like that is the road they are heading towards: neither great nor awful, just fine–a nice program with a tremendous Hall of Fame museum. I hope that I’m wrong.
Bob E. Freeman
This is a Really Good Sign
Will They or Won’t They?
Got some thoughts on last year’s runners up. Will share them later this weekend. Ran across this on the interwebs. Its championship or bust down in Chapel Hill, and they aren’t shying away from saying it. But again, its Carolina, and the same goals are always the same every season for those Blue Blood programs: win the conference, win the conference tournament, and make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
FULLSASS Presents: THIS A GOOD ASS GAME 